Here is a post titled investing in 2012 for survival that I drew up. I will copy and past it below, and then add additional predictions. If you want to know what the first 2Qs or perhaps even 3Qs of 2012 will be like, play Monopoly with no cash for passing go and half...
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The Fall Of Rome, Supply Shortages & Hyperinflation
I received a critical anonymous comment by someone on my 2012 trend report. One particular comment was justified as I made a serious typo talking about a spike in treasury demand but mistakenly said treasury yields. In the context I talked about selling into strength of the spike upwards, but I certainly understand the...
January 2012 Trend Report
See also the 2012 trend report. Stocks remain in a monthly downtrend, but a weekly uptrend although the weekly uptrend is now overbought. The economy is in a very vulnerable position here. It starts in Europe. A sovereign default occurred in Austria in 1931 that kicked off a wave of others and the great...
2012 Trend Report
Rather than title this the January Trend Report, I want to look a bit more ahead and provide a more detailed report. So I will just call this the 2012 Trend Report. Briefly the Jan trend report has the following stats right now (daily OB) weekly OB (weekly divergence in slow stoch (kinda) @115)...
Evaluating Your Positions Using The Kelly Criterion In Investing
Although a change in trends or shift into “oversold” or “overbought” conditions, especially on a monthly timeframe should result in some drastic shifts in your portfolio, there are times between trends when individual positions are up or down, or when certain changes in fundamentals should impact your weightings, and there are times when you...
How To Boost Portfolio Growth: Leveraging Arbitrage
The best part about arbitrage plays is how independent they are from each other as well as the market. Multiple arbitrage plays on their own can provide a great high probability portfolio with consistently positive trades over time. However, if you are also following trends, and keeping an amount of bias towards stocks and...
Boosting Long Term Portfolio Growth By Leveraging Arbitrage
A big part of the concept of using the principals of the “kelly criterion” in your advantage is understanding that you can leverage multiple bets simultaneously if they are INDEPENDENT and that the more independent profitable bets at once, the better (with all other things being equal). The markets rarely have complete independence and...
December Trend Report Update
I haven’t yet put out this December report until now because we are testing the boundaries and I wasn’t sure if we were going to see a new signal. We are very near overbought on a weekly chart and we are testing the upper boundaries of the downtrend on the monthly chart. With a...
Investing In 2012
Investing is a broad word because there are so many different vehicles upon which to allocate your capital to in efforts to make money. Some define investing as requiring a certain length of time, others require a higher probability of a positive return. For now we are only going to include investing in paper...
Trend Following Strategy Using Sound Money Management Principals
I’ve decided to keep this blog on ibankcoin specific to trends. To keep this blog on topic I made a post at stocktradinginvestments.com titled Kelly Criterion Shows Decreased Correlation Increase Return. The short version is the picture worth a thousand words. Reducing correlation (and thus increasing your independence of your bets) is important because you can...
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