I have spoken a couple times about arbitrage plays on this site. What I want to communicate now is another aspect of it. For example, say there are several arbitrage opportunities at a given time. For simplification purposes, we will assume the closing date is known and the probabilities of the deals going through...
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Good Stock Market Investing Strategy
There are many stock market investing strategies, but putting all of the bits of wisdom together into one comprehensive flexible strategy is difficult. Markets have many patterns of behavior combined in one and different ways to play those features. The optimal way to play the markets is a combination of understanding all of the...
Investing In 2012
Investing is a broad word because there are so many different vehicles upon which to allocate your capital to in efforts to make money. Some define investing as requiring a certain length of time, others require a higher probability of a positive return. For now we are only going to include investing in paper...
What stocks to buy and at what price?
Although Warren learned as much or more from Benjamin Graham than anyone else and called Ben Graham’s books the best peices of literature ever written about investment, they differeed in philosophy slightly. The fundimental difference between Warren Buffett and Ben Graham is based on the questions “What stocks to buy and What price?”. Although...
Good stocks to buy right now
I ran the following screen looking for good stocks to buy right now. Net Margin >.2 ROA (5 Yr Avg) >0 Current ROE (TTM) >20 Price/Sales Price/Book P/E (Trailing 12 Months) PEG Ratio 1 5 Yr. Hist. EPS Growth >0 Long-Term Growth Consensus Est. >0 % Change EPS (F(-1)/F(-2)) >0 Last Yrs Growth (F...
Stock Market Investments For 2012
When it comes to stock investments in 2012, there are so many to chose from that it can be an overwhelming task to narrow it down to just the best stocks at the best price to buy right now. It’s difficult to predict where stocks as a whole will go from one year to...
Kelly Criterion Shows Decreased Correlation Increase Return
“In probability theory, the Kelly criterion, or Kelly strategy or Kelly formula, or Kelly bet, is a formula used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets. In most gambling scenarios, and some investing scenarios under some simplifying assumptions, the Kelly strategy will do better than any essentially different strategy in the...
November Stock Market Update
There is a similar update posted here and a weekly update here. the post you are reading now is a bit cluttered but I want to get it out before November. Fundamentally, these are the sectors that looks good from valuation perspective in order by value. This does not look at the long term...
Good Stock Investments
Good Stock Investments require an understanding of both quality of the company, and price. If you are just looking at price, it is more of a trade. If you are just looking at quality it is more of a donation to society. I am not saying quality alone isn’t a wise decision, but if...
Head and Shoulders Pattern
The stock market shows another head and shoulder pattern. It is unclear whether or not it will break down and continue to drop towards it’s target of SPY 113 or S&P 1130, but Historically here are the numbers regarding head and shoulders in individual stocks. Average decline around 25% (22% in bull market 29%...